Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality for Peruvian Population

Abstract

In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the two-factor Lee-Carter (LC) model. The stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been used by many authors for fitting and forecasting the human mortality rates. The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach is used for estimation of the parameters of the LC model. Utilizing the best fitted auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model we forecast the values of the time dependent parameter of the LC model for the next thirty years. The forecasted values of life expectancy at different age group with 95% confidence intervals are also reported for the next thirty years. In this research we use the data, obtained from the Peruvian National Institute of Statistics (INEI).